“Now they don’t have Trump, so the blame for the economy and our handling of Russia is rightfully being directed at the current president. “Biden won in 2020 because Democrats and even some Republicans hated Trump,” she told VOA. In addition to President Biden’s effect on the midterms, some Republican voters like Jill Dani of Florida believe former President Trump’s absence from the ballot will help her preferred party’s chances. “Biden hasn’t been perceived as a very good leader and if his approval rating drops below 40% it’s hard to imagine how Democrats will be able to hold their majorities in Congress.” “A president’s approval rating is definitely one factor in how his party fares in elections,” political scientist Bullock explained. To her point, the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found that independent voters - an important swing group - favored Republicans over Democrats 45% to 38%.Īnother area of concern among Democrats is President Biden’s struggling approval ratings, which currently stand at just 41% - similar to former President Donald Trump at this point in his presidency, and below all other recent presidents. “Voters of all backgrounds will be voting Republican this year.”

Steel told VOA she expects big wins for her party in this year’s midterms. “Under President Biden, Americans face skyrocketing inflation, insane gas prices, high taxes, and a southern border completely out of control,” said Representative Michelle Steel, a California Republican who is up for re-election in November. Some Republicans say this advantage is due to what they say is the Democratic Party’s failure to lead the country despite controlling the White House and having slim majorities in Congress. A late-April NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey found that 47% of respondents said they were more likely to vote for the Republican in their district while 44% said they were more likely to vote Democrat.Īccording to Marist, this is the first time in eight years their survey detected a Republican advantage.

Polling data similarly portends disaster for Democrats. It’s a predictable never-ending cycle, like a pendulum that swings between the far/moderate left, to the far right.” “Things have felt so unstable here with the pandemic, and the economy and everything related to racial justice, so I think Republicans will probably win. “I unfortunately think our country will swing dramatically to the right,” said Julie Bierschenk, a Democratic voter in Chicago, Illinois. The trend of midterms damaging the sitting president’s party is so well known in America that some Democratic voters seem resigned to what is projected to be a difficult election cycle. “The question is how many seats they are going to lose.” “The question isn’t whether or not the Democrats will lose seats during the midterms,” University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock told VOA. Historically, the midterm elections have not fared well for the political party of the sitting president, especially when - like Democratic President Joe Biden - that president is in their first term in office.

presidential elections but will set the political direction of the United States, by determining whether Democrats or Republicans will control state houses, as well as whether President Biden will have an agreeable Congress to help enact his agenda. The midterms not only mark the halfway point between the 20 U.S. I think a lot of them are going to be eager to vote and express displeasure at the way the country is being run.” “Friends who can barely afford the gas they need to get themselves to job sites. “I have so many friends who are struggling right now,” said Brandon Legnion, a nurse in New Orleans, Louisiana. With rising inflation, an ongoing pandemic, a Russian war in Ukraine and now a looming Supreme Court ruling on abortion, the stakes are high as Americans prepare to go to the polls in November for midterm elections.

Midterm elections predictions